How To Use Data to Identify Your Best Prospective Donors
Data isn’t just a bunch of numbers—it’s the ultimate cheat code for finding your next big supporters. In this post, we will explore how to use the info you already have to spot the exact people who have both the wallet and the heart to back your cause.
Staring at a spreadsheet full of donor histories and contact info can feel a bit like reading matrix code. But once you know how to sort through the noise, that messy database becomes a treasure map pointing you straight to the people who are just waiting for a reason to give.
What is prospective donor identification?
Prospective donor identification, which most folks in the non-profit world just call prospect research, is the strategic process of finding and vetting the right people to support your cause. Instead of just guessing who might write a check, fundraising teams use data to pinpoint folks who actually have the means and the heart to give.
To figure out who is a good match, fundraisers look at a few core ingredients:
- Prospect research: The behind-the-scenes work of looking at data and public records to find new potential supporters and get a feel for their backgrounds.
- Capacity: A look at a prospect's financial ability to give, usually based on clues like real estate, business ownership, or stock portfolios.
- Affinity: How much someone actually cares about your specific cause or how connected they already are to your organization.
- Propensity to give: A person's track record of giving, which shows whether they actually like supporting charities or if they tend to keep their wallet closed.
Past performance predicts future giving
Financial firms may be quick to offer the disclaimer that past performance is no indicator of future performance. In the fundraising world, the opposite is true: past performance strongly correlates with future performance.
Based on a back testing of $5 billion in known giving to 400 nonprofit organizations, the five factors that most accurately predict future giving are, in order of predictive strength:
- Previous giving to your organization
- Previous giving to other organizations
- Participation as a foundation trustee or director
- Federal political giving
- Real estate valued at $2+ million
Read on to explore some insights into those factors.
Previous giving to your organization
Previous giving – that is, demonstrated loyalty to your organization – is measured using RFM:
- (R)ecency: How recently someone has donated to your organization (more recent is better)
- (F)requency: How frequently someone donates to your organization
- (M)oney: How much someone donates to your organization
Loyal donors tend to remain loyal donors, unless you neglect them, your organization undergoes significant change, or their circumstances change. According to a Lawyers.com study, 78% of planned giving donors made 15 or more gifts to the nonprofits named in their wills during their lifetimes. In many cases, these were such small gifts that gift officers hadn’t even noticed the donor: Giving USA noted that 40% of all planned giving donors were unknown to the organization.
Previous giving to other organizations
Someone who gives substantial gifts to other organizations, especially if those organizations share or complement their mission, is a very likely prospect. In an analysis of the $5 billion in known giving mentioned above, someone who made a $100k gift elsewhere was almost 33 times more likely to donate to a like-minded organization than someone who hadn’t. Take a look at the chart:
Position as a foundation trustee or executive
This one is obvious: people who are heavily involved in non-profit foundations understand the importance of philanthropy. They support their own organizations as well as others.
Having a trustee or foundation executive in your network opens up a whole web of secondary connections. These individuals are constantly collaborating with other high-net-worth philanthropists, wealth managers, and community leaders. Identifying a prospect with these credentials doesn't just put you in touch with a single high-capacity donor—it potentially connects your non-profit to an entire ecosystem of like-minded supporters.
Federal political giving
There is a very strong correlation between political giving and charitable giving. In fact, someone who has given at least $2,500 in his/her lifetime to federal political campaigns is almost 15 times more likely to give a philanthropic donation than someone who hasn’t. Even a $500 donation makes someone five times more likely to donate to a nonprofit.
Real estate value
The likelihood of philanthropy rises along with the value of someone’s home. Since real estate values are the broadest publicly available marker of wealth, this is information that’s easy to find for any property-owning prospective donor. The short version:
- Real estate $2+ million = 17.55 times more likely to make a charitable donation.
- Real estate $1-2 million = 4.17 times more likely to make a charitable donation.
- Real estate $750k-1 million = 2.25 times more likely to make a charitable donation.
- Real estate $500k-749k = 1.25 times more likely to make a charitable donation.
Below that, prospects are less likely to make a charitable gift than the average person. Note that real estate thresholds vary by geographic area.
Find prospects hidden in your database
When we think about donor research, our minds tend to wander outside our own walls. We dream about finding that elusive, ultra-wealthy philanthropist who will suddenly swoop in and fund our entire wish list. But the truth is, the best prospective donors are usually right under your nose, already sitting quietly inside your database.
Instead of chasing cold leads who have never heard of you, you can use data to uncover incredible, untapped potential from the people who already love your mission. Here is a tactical guide on exactly where to look.
Spot your upgrade candidates
The most reliable major donors rarely start out by writing giant checks; they scale up over time. To find these hidden gems, stop filtering your database only by the largest gift amounts. Instead, look for your mid-tier consistent donors.
Run a report for individuals who have given multiple times a year for the last two to three consecutive years. If someone is giving you $250 or $500 like clockwork every time you ask, they have a massive affinity for your cause. A personalized phone call, an invite to an exclusive event, or a direct conversation about a specific project might be all it takes to upgrade them into your major gift tier.
Reactivate your lapsed donors
A lapsed donor isn't necessarily a lost cause—often, they just got busy or stopped receiving your updates. Because they have already supported you in the past, reactivating a lapsed donor is much easier (and cheaper) than acquiring a completely new one.
Dig into your data and pull a list of folks who have given consistently but haven’t contributed in the last 12 to 24 months. Before you send a generic "we miss you" letter, look at their giving history. What specific campaign did they support? Reach out with a targeted update showing the direct impact of their past gifts, and invite them back into the fold with a clear, low-pressure opportunity to reconnect.
Identify planned-giving prospects among small, recurring donors
This is where data gets truly fascinating. Nonprofits often make the mistake of assuming that planned giving—like leaving a bequest in a will—is an exclusive club reserved for the incredibly wealthy.
Studies show that the majority of legacy gifts were donated by supporters who weren’t major donors in their lifetime.
These aren't folks writing five-figure checks today. More often than not, they are your $15-a-month recurring donors or the individuals who have sent in a small check every single Christmas for the last two decades. Their capacity might look small on paper, but their lifetime loyalty is unmatched. Run a query for your longest-tenured, most frequent small-dollar supporters. They are your prime candidates for a warm, gentle conversation about your legacy giving program.
Retention and lapsed donor reactivation strategies
The absolute best way to avoid a database full of lapsed donors is to build a retention strategy that makes people feel valued the second their first gift lands.
Acknowledge and thank immediately
Do not let an automated tax receipt do your heavy lifting. Send a personalized, warm thank-you email or video message within 48 hours. For mid-to-high-tier donors, have a board member or executive director place a quick "thank you" phone call with zero strings attached.
Show the direct impact
Before you ask for another dime, send a follow-up piece that explicitly shows what their money accomplished. Share a story of a specific individual helped, a project completed, or a milestone reached because of their support.
Invite them into the community
Give your donors ways to interact with your organization that do not involve their wallets. Invite them to tour your facility, volunteer at an upcoming event, or join a free webinar updating supporters on your field operations.
Ask for advice, not just money
Send a brief, annual feedback survey to ask your supporters why they give and what areas of your work they care about most. Donors who feel their opinions are valued are significantly more likely to stick around in the long term.
Lapsed donor reactivation strategies
When donors do lapse, it is usually not because they suddenly started hating your cause. More often than not, they simply got distracted, changed credit cards, or felt like their individual support didn't matter.
To bring these supporters back into the fold, you need a targeted approach based on why and when they stopped giving. For donors who have drifted away in the last 12 to 18 months, try reaching out with a "Loss of Impact" update. Show them a specific project or community need that is currently facing a gap, and invite them to be the ones to solve it. If the donor was part of your recurring monthly giving program and suddenly stopped, it is often because the credit card expired or was replaced. Set up an automated billing update workflow to send a friendly text or email with a secure link to refresh their payment info immediately.
Another incredibly effective approach is the customized anniversary check-in. Time this outreach to land exactly one year after their last milestone gift, letting them know how much their past partnership meant and asking them to renew that specific commitment.
When reaching out to reactivated prospects, always acknowledge their past relationship. Never treat a returning donor like a total stranger—lead with, "Welcome back, we've missed you!" rather than a generic solicitation.
What donors actually want from you
When you are deep in prospect research, it is easy to start looking at people as just data points—names attached to wealth indicators, real estate values, and historical giving trends. But behind every record in your database is a real human being. If you want to convert a great prospect into a lifelong supporter, you have to understand the psychology behind why they choose to give in the first place.
Donors do not give to make your organization rich; they give to solve problems and make a difference. Understanding their core expectations is the key to unlocking their generosity.
Proof of impact, not just a receipt
The number one thing donors want to see is where their money actually went. Nobody wants to feel like their hard-earned dollars vanished into a black hole of administrative overhead. When someone gives, they are trusting you to do something meaningful on their behalf.
Instead of just sending a transactional tax receipt, give them proof of the change they created. Share a concrete story about a community that now has clean water, a student who received a life-changing scholarship, or an animal that found a home. If you show them exactly how their first gift made a tangible impact, they will be much more likely to say yes when you ask for their support again.
Sincere appreciation without an immediate ask
There is a massive mistake that drives donors away faster than almost anything else: the "thank-you-ask." This happens when an organization sends a thank-you note that immediately pivots into asking for another donation. It feels transactional, insincere, and incredibly pushy.
Donors want to feel genuinely appreciated as partners in your mission. Send a pure thank-you message—whether it is a handwritten card, a quick phone call from a board member, or a video from your team on the ground. Let that appreciation breathe. When you give supporters space to just feel good about their generosity without immediately reaching for their wallet again, you build real trust.
Clear, honest communication
Supporters appreciate transparency, even when things do not go perfectly. They want to know the real story of what your non-profit is facing. If a project hits a snag or takes longer than expected, be upfront about it.
Donors also want control over how you communicate with them. Let them choose how often they hear from you and what kinds of updates they receive. Respecting their preferences shows that you value them as a human being, not just a recurring line item in your fundraising budget.
People give because it aligns with their values and makes them feel good to do good. If you treat your prospects like partners instead of automated funding sources, they will stay with you for the long haul.
From signal to ask: Matching prospects to the right request
Gathering donor data is a great start, but the real magic happens when you turn those insights into action. If you treat every potential supporter the same way, you risk leaving major contributions on the table or accidentally turning off long-time friends with tone-deaf requests.
The secret is matching the unique signals a donor sends with the exact right strategy. Think of it like matchmaking—you want your invitation to perfectly align with their capability and their passion.
To get the best results, use this simple breakdown to align your database signals with the perfect fundraising request:
Prospective donor identification checklist
Here is a practical tool you can use right away. This step-by-step checklist ensures your fundraising team captures the right data points before making a major outreach effort.
- Calculate historical engagement (Affinity score)
- Find the prospect's lifetime giving total, number of individual gifts, and the last time they made a contribution.
- Check for non-monetary connection points, such as volunteer history, email open rates, event attendance, or if they are related to a current board member.
- Verify public wealth indicators (Capacity score)
- Search public real estate databases to identify residential and commercial property holdings.
- Review corporate filings, LinkedIn profiles, and business registries to note executive positions, board seats, or business ownership.
- Check public financial databases for SEC insider stock transactions or stock holdings.
- Analyze external philanthropic footprints (Propensity score)
- Look up federal and local election commission records to check for past political contributions.
- Review annual reports or donor walls of peer non-profits in your community to see where else the prospect regularly gives.
- Note if the individual serves as a trustee, director, or executive for any family or corporate foundations.
- Assign the prospect persona
- Upgrade candidate: High frequency of small-to-medium gifts + moderate wealth indicators.
- Major gift prospect: High wealth indicators + high affinity markers.
- Legacy candidate: Exceptionally high lifetime gift frequency + low-to-moderate gift amounts.
- Determine the next best action
- Tag the prospect in your database with their appropriate segment.
- Assign a relationship manager (such as a board member or development officer).
- Set a calendar reminder for the initial touchpoint, ensuring it is a value-add engagement (like an impact report or exclusive invite) rather than an immediate financial ask.
How Bloomerang helps you identify prospects
Building a manual spreadsheet matrix or spending hours running custom data scripts can quickly drain a fundraising team's energy. This is where modern tools step in to bridge the gap between messy data and actionable strategy. Using an intuitive setup like the Bloomerang CRM simplifies the entire process by tracking real-time engagement signals right where your donor profiles live.
To make these database insights even easier to navigate, Bloomerang features Penny, a purpose-built AI fundraising partner residing directly within the giving platform. Rather than requiring you to build complex reporting filters, Penny lets you find prospects using natural-language queries—like asking a trusted colleague, "Which donors are ready for a giving upgrade?" or "Help me prepare for a major donor meeting with Anne Smith."
Penny acts as an intuitive sounding board, analyzing real-time donor histories and explaining exactly why certain prospects rise to the top. By pairing sophisticated database segmentation with guided AI insights, fundraising teams can stop digging through rows of raw numbers and start focusing their time where it matters most: building genuine, human connections with the people who love their cause.
Frequently asked questions
What are the best indicators that someone will donate?
The absolute best indicator is a person’s past history of giving to your non-profit. The second-best indicator is their history of giving to other peer non-profits. Philanthropic indicators, such as serving as a foundation trustee or board member, are also highly predictive of future generosity.
What is RFM?
RFM stands for Recency, Frequency, and Monetary value. It is a data evaluation framework that scores your current donors based on when they last gave, how often they give, and how much they contribute. High RFM scores instantly flag your most loyal, highly engaged upgrade candidates.
How can I find planned giving prospects?
Instead of searching for raw wealth, query your database for your longest-tenured, most frequent small-dollar donors. Because roughly 40% of planned giving donors are completely unknown to non-profits as major gift prospects during their lifetimes, long-term loyalty is the ultimate predictor for a future legacy bequest.
Wrapping up: Your best donors are hiding in plain sight
Data analytics can easily uncover the best prospective donors who are currently hiding in plain sight within your donor database. By understanding the specific signals that pinpoint these prospects—like consistent giving frequency, community foundation ties, or long-term loyalty—you can instantly take the guesswork out of your fundraising. Instead of chasing cold leads, you can focus your team's limited development resources on the individuals who are already primed and waiting for a deeper relationship.
The best next step you can take today is to step away from the spreadsheets and stop waiting for a perfect moment. Pick just one segment from your database this week—whether that is your small-dollar monthly recurring donors or those mid-tier supporters who give multiple times a year like clockwork. Run a quick query, look at their unique affinity history, and reach out with a personal, pure thank-you message that celebrates the real-world impact they have already made. By turning your raw numbers into meaningful conversations, you will transform hidden database insights into lasting, high-impact partnerships for your mission.
